As per a recent study by researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), India might witness 2.87 lakh coronavirus cases per day by early 2021.

For their study titled ?Estimating the global spread of COVID-19, researchers Hazhir Rahmandad, TY Lim and John Sterman at MIT’s Sloan School of Management used the multi-country modified SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model, which is a standard mathematical model for infectious diseases used by epidemiologists for their analysis.

Through the study, the researchers concluded that India may record highest number of fresh cases in the world by February 2021. As per the study, India will be the worst affected country due to coronavirus followed by the United States (95,000 cases per day), South Africa (21,000 cases per day) and Iran (17,000 cases per day) by the end of February 2021. Further, the researchers said that without a vaccine, 24.9 crore cases and 18 lakh deaths may be recorded globally by March-May 2021.

The study is based on three scenarios: 

2) If testing increases by 0.1 per cent per day from July 1, 2020

3) If testing remains at current levels but contact rate to perceived risk is set to 8 (i.e. if one infected person infects eight people)

The model elaborates on the importance of early and aggressive testing in containing the spread of Covid-19. The study implies that delay in testing or less testing could be fatal to significant proportion of the population.

As per the study, the first two scenarios project a very large burden of new cases in the fall (September-November) of 2020 with hundreds of millions of cases concentrated in a few countries estimated to have insufficient responses given perceived risks, primarily India, but also Bangladesh, Pakistan, and USA.

Also read : WHO acknowledges possibility of airborne spread of COVID-19

The study concludes that countries responding poorly to the outbreak are more likely to face severe challenges. It also says that future outcomes are less dependent on testing and more contingent on the willingness of communities and governments to reduce transmission.

The study further reveals that Covid-19 infection and fatalities are under-reported worldwide. The study estimated that total infections on June 18 were 11.8 and 1.48 times more than actually reported numbers respectively. According to Johns Hopkins University, as of June 18, the official number of coronavirus cases globally was 8.24 million and that of deaths was 4,54,610.